HearthStone – How a theoretical spreadsheet can improve your ladder results

As an Excel nerd and HearthStone fan it was always my goal to create a spreadsheet which helps me to play better on ladder. There are several tools which help you to track how good your decks perform, but in my opinion they all have one major flaw: they only track the class of the enemies faced and not the specific deck. Over the past few months I have created and used a spreadsheet, which delivers a theoretical way to pick successful decks for ladder. On the spreadsheet, you will automatically read which decks are currently the most popular and which of your decks you should play to counter them.

Below I will explain in detail, how the spreadsheet works. It has two sheets which serve different purposes. The Game-Tracker is, as you would expect, a sheet to track all of the games you play. The Chart is the place where you get all the stats generated by the Game-Tracker.

 

In the Game-Tracker, you have to chronological write (or copy) from top to bottom, a line for every match you play.

graph1
  1. You start off by filling out the date, which is important to create stats about the current meta. Secondly, you name the deck played by you and your enemy. This is already a point, where you have to decide, how detailed you want to work: you could just write Mage, Mechmage or specify even further (e.g. Mechmage v_2.3) when you want to see how different builds work on ladder. I mostly went with the archetypes the Power Ranking or Metareport use. I did not go more detailed, because I’m a casual and don’t have time to test every deck version enough times to generate statistically significant data. The last column is also important: write a “1” if you won and a “0” if you lost the matchup. In the notes section I sometimes wrote down the reason why I lost to avoid making mistakes twice.

Now there is another small step to do, before you can enjoy your stats.

graph2

  1. On the second sheet you have to manually fill the A-column with all the decks you faced and the second row with all the decks you played. Make sure to use the same spelling as on the Game-Tracker sheet and avoid duplicates.

Unfortunately you have to keep performing step one and at the beginning, also step two continuously. However, with copy-paste the time during the match-loading screen is enough to fill everything out.

  1. As soon as you played a few games you can start to extract the stats to the Chart sheet. You start of by setting the date in B2 to a specific date. Dependable of this date the column B now shows you the rarity of each deck you faced on ladder since the date you set in B2. The shorter this period is, the more current the stats are. If you played only a few games they won’t be meaningful enough to consider.
  2. After seeing which decks are currently popular, you focus on the green part of the Chart. Here you see the win-percentage of every deck in row 3 and below all specific win-percentages vs. the single decks played by your enemies. Based on the preceding finding you can now simply observe which decks are popular and which decks you should pick to counter them.

As an example, we take a look at the Chart I populated in the last few months.

graph3

As you can see by the high number in column B, I have recently faced a lot of Midrange Hunter (Midhunter). Therefore I look in row 12, which of my decks performed best vs. Midhunter. Since I have the highest win percentage with Patron (88%), I might immediately pick this deck but after looking closer at the other popular decks (Combodruid, Tempomage, Facehunter) I might consider a deck like my Zoolock which performs on average, better. Or I adjust the date in B2 to another period to make the results more accurate.

I hope this spreadsheet can help you to theoretically perform better on ladder. It’s also obvious that the games I played aren’t enough to make the data in my spreadsheet significant, but I hope some players with more time will test the system as well and tell me about your experience.

 

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